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Elliott Wave3/25/2021
I have spent a good part of this morning trying to figure out this downside pattern in the ES, as the structure is really not the usual Fib Pinball structure.For Avis complete coverage, which includes analysis of the SP 500.While the market may even attempt one more poke higher into the 3400ES region, I think the greater probabilities have grown that we see a pullback starting soon, if we have not already begun.Ideally, I am looking for a pullback to the 3250-3300SPX region, as shown on the 5-minute SPX chart for the bii pullback.
The Reports Of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated Wed Sep 30th 2020 Despite the ES slightly breaking below the.382 retracement support last night, the market has come back roaring today to complete 5-waves up off the low structure last week. Yet, remember, the a wave in green can also be a 5-wave structure. While it is clearly not my favored, it is still in the running at least for now. You see, the market dropped right down to the.618 retracement level of the alternative wave 1 of iii in yellow, and has rallied off that support. The question now is if the market can complete a 5-wave structure off that support or not. Looking for a corrective pullback next Mon Sep 28th 2020 The ES continued to grind modestly higher following the open this morning, still showing no clear signs of a local top in place yet as either blue wave (i) of i or red wave a of B. Therefore, I dont have much to add yet since the morning update, and still cant offer exact retracement levels as target support for blue wave (ii) or red wave b until we see more evidence of a local top in place. What is shown on the chart currently (3291.50 - 3255. The Easy Part Is Done Thu Sep 24th 2020 With the drop we had into todays low, the market has now provided us with the minimum number of waves needed to consider the c wave down as completed. Moreover, we even tested the 3200SPX support, as we came up only a few points short of that target. Ideally, I wanted to see the market move below 3200SPX to bolster my expectations for the green count. Can We Get That Lower Low Wed Sep 23rd 2020 Trading for the dreaded lower low is not always easy. But, thus far, the market is signaling it wants to provide that to us this time. Moreover, the market has turned down from the resistance I highlighted yesterday, after providing us with the standard overlap we see with waves 4 and 1 in an ending diagonal. Not Making It Easy Tue Sep 22nd 2020 Throughout the last few market days, I have been outlining the issues I have been having with the internal structure within this decline. It did not provide us with the standard 1-2, i-ii downside set up, nor did it follow through in appropriate Fibonacci Pinball fashion. So, I began discussing the ending diagonal potential yesterday. Today, I think the market has made it clear that if we are going to get that lower low below the 3200 level, it will take shape as an ending diagonal. Break Down Mon Sep 21st 2020 I dont think I have to tell you that the market decided to take the more direct path to the 3200SPX region, as it made that abundantly clear with todays action. Before I go into my expectation as we look towards tomorrow, I want to repost something I wrote early today.
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